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Working with the future. Ideas and tools to govern uncertainty - Roberto Poli

DATA DI RILASCIO 27/11/2019
DIMENSIONE DEL FILE 12,29
ISBN 9788899902599
LINGUAGGIO ITALIANO
AUTRICE/AUTORE Roberto Poli
FORMATO: PDF EPUB MOBI
PREZZO: GRATUITA

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Così come disponiamo di strumenti per studiare e ricostruire la storia, analogamente esistono strumenti scientificamente solidi per immaginare e studiare il futuro. Prevedere quello che succederà e anticipare il futuro oggi non è più materia da sfera di cristallo. La ricerca ha infatti sviluppato strumenti affidabili per tracciare i megatrend che caratterizzeranno i prossimi decenni ed elaborare scenari sufficientemente precisi per guidare le decisioni nel presente. Identificare i rischi e misurare il grado di incertezza, saper distinguere ciò che è solo complicato da ciò che è effettivamente complesso: sono queste alcune delle vie che ci consentono di lavorare con il futuro, un vero e proprio esercizio che il libro scandisce in fasi, ciascuna con i propri specifici strumenti e metodi. Intelligenza collettiva, tattiche militari, strategie resilienti riempiono la cassetta degli attrezzi di una nuova professione: quella del futurista, per la quale, però occorre un talento particolare, ovvero la capacità di nutrire grandi aspirazioni.

...ative Methods, Bocconi University, ... Available online 5 June 2006 Abstract Uncertainty in parameters is present in many risk assessment problems and leads to uncertainty in model predictions ... Working with the Future: Ideas and Tools to Govern ... ... . ... presents perspectives of future research. Section 7 offers conclusions. 2. Research and development (R&D) projects, because these typically require lengthy time commitments and large investments, subject to two types of uncertainty: time uncertainties and technological uncertainties. This article explains these two types of uncertainty and examines a process for implementing R&D projects that increases investor confidence and reduces uncertainty, a process that ... Persp ... Ottawa working with U.S consulting firm on early planning ... ... . This article explains these two types of uncertainty and examines a process for implementing R&D projects that increases investor confidence and reduces uncertainty, a process that ... Perspective: Linking Design Thinking with Innovation Outcomes through Cognitive Bias Reduction Jeanne Liedtka "Design thinking" has generated significant attention in the business press and has been heralded as a novel problem-solving methodology well suited to the often-cited challenges business organizations face in encouraging Tips on Tolerating Uncertainty Related Articles This article features affiliate links to Amazon.com, where a small commission is paid to Psych Central if a book is purchased. The Uncertainty principle is also called the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. Werner Heisenberg stumbled on a secret of the universe: Nothing has a definite position, a definite trajectory, or a definite momentum.Trying to pin a thing down to one definite position will make its momentum less well pinned down, and vice-versa.In everyday life we can successfully measure the position of an ... We further propose to discriminate among three dimensions of uncertainty: location, level and nature of uncertainty, and we harmonise existing typologies to further detail the concepts behind these three dimensions of uncertainty.We propose an uncertainty matrix as a heuristic tool to classify and report the various dimensions of uncertainty, thereby providing a conceptual framework for better ... Since I am straddling familiarity and the unknown, waiting to form some type of expectations for my future, I've been thinking a lot about dealing with uncertainty well. Though I've written before about embracing an uncertain future, I have a few more ideas to add to the mix: 1. Replace expectations with plans. uncertainty, the relevance of the two components flips. Due to the non-linearities in the inter-actions, carbon flow uncertainty plays a minor role whereas temperature uncertainty raises the welfare loss and carbon tax substantially. These findings have immediate implications for research priorities in the climate sciences. Strategy Under Uncertainty harvard business review • november-december 1997 page 3 there is greater uncertainty about the future, it is at best marginally helpful and at worst downright dangerous. One danger is that this traditional approach leads executives to view uncertainty in a bi-nary way—to assume that the world is either Request PDF | Embracing Uncertainty in Policy-Making: The Case of the Water Sector | Recent research on policy-making under uncertainty in the water sector has contributed to our understanding of ... HOW TO TOLERATE UNCERTAINTY Dealing with uncertainty is an unavoidable part of daily life. Because we can't see the future, we can never be certain about what exactly is going to happen day to day. Research has found that people vary in their ability to tolerate uncertainty. However, what I've come to realize is that all of my ideas of "knowing" actually block me from the truth more than they reveal it. Uncertainty makes us feel vulnerable and so we try and escape it any way that we can. We convince ourselves that we are fortune tellers and can therefore see the future. In embracing uncertainty for innovation it is important to formulate a sequential approach that has a defined systematic frame work with clear time lines and communication channels so as to establish a seamless effective and efficient process that will ultimately have tangible results. Approaches for Performing Uncertainty Analysis in Large-scale Energy/Economic Policy Models Antje Kann and John P. Weyant Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford University Terman Engineering Building, Room 406 Stanford, CA 94305 EMF Working Paper 14.6, June 1999 (appeared in Environmental Modeling and Assessment, Vol. 5, No.1, 2000, pp. 29-46) Abs...